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  • #457556

    Jacob Brown
    Participant
    CFP Student

    Replies: 24
    Topics: 54
    Join date: 2018/06/07

    888 Poker – $0.30 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players

    SB: $22.00 (VPIP: 48.39, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
    BB: $33.30 (VPIP: 20.79, PFR: 14.19, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 308)
    UTG: $30.96 (VPIP: 36.99, PFR: 30.14, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 73)
    MP: $22.43 (VPIP: 38.24, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
    CO: $32.11 (VPIP: 17.93, PFR: 14.48, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, Hands: 145)
    Hero (BTN): $76.02

    SB posts SB $0.15, BB posts BB $0.30

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.45) Hero has 9 T

    fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.60, BB raises to $3.39, Hero calls $2.64, SB calls $2.64

    Flop: ($10.17, 3 players) 8 T 2
    SB checks, BB bets $5.13, Hero calls $5.13, fold

    Turn: ($20.43, 2 players) 9
    BB bets $4.85, Hero raises to $67.50 and is all-in, BB calls $19.93 and is all-in

    River: ($69.99, 2 players) J

    Spoiler:
    BB shows T T (Three of a Kind, Tens)
    (Pre 82%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)
    Hero shows 9 T (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
    (Pre 18%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)
    BB wins $66.50

    Villain’s squeeze so far: 1/27 (4%)

    Overall 3bet % also around 4%.

    Q: what to do OTT?

    A: Given villain’s stats, villain doesn’t really have straights here, and only a few realistic flushes (AK, AQ, AJ, KQ at most). We block the most likely sets too, so unless villain starts folding their overpairs here we have a clear value shove. Don’t think this villain will.

    #457699

    g1ssy
    Participant
    CFP Student

    Replies: 324
    Topics: 6
    Join date: 2017/02/24

    OTT i would call his bet, because of his sizing and evaluate the river. If he bets again OTR i will fold this hand.

    This is the range i think he will have for betting flop and turn, and as you can see i dont think we have a profitable sove.

    I really dont know if he bets turn with QQc and JJc( Q, J of clubs). Maybe he does with that sizing and then calls a sove, i really dont know. 

    Please let me know if you think  there are mistakes in my analisys. Lets all learn from this together ;).

    #457705

    Jacob Brown
    Participant
    CFP Student

    Replies: 24
    Topics: 54
    Join date: 2018/06/07

    Don’t think villain has so many flushes (probably a tight squeezer) but doesn’t make too much difference. Suppose the crucial thing is what villain does w/ OPs w/o a club. If villain doesn’t bet them, or bet/folds, then agree that we should call turn and probably fold to a shove on most rivers. 

    #457752

    g1ssy
    Participant
    CFP Student

    Replies: 324
    Topics: 6
    Join date: 2017/02/24

    Maybe this range is more appropriate for the situation. Most likely he does not sqz from BB A3s-A5s.

    #458630

    pokajack55
    Participant
    CFP Student

    Replies: 514
    Topics: 99
    Join date: 2018/01/17

    I dont mind letting it go preflop when V Sq so tight. What happens most of the time  is that you will have either a pair or draw and invest postflop when villain is very tight. However with the fish in pot and postion, calling is fine.

    On the turn I dont think you have a shove here, because you need to put in his calling range, not his turn range. Against that you are not favorite  (TT+ with club and AJ+ of clubs).

    "Life´s greatest lessons are learned through Pain"
    https://www.bestpokercoaching.com/topic/making-the-dream-into-reality/

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