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March 29, 2019 at 1:05 pm #464627
Murat CakmakParticipantCFP Student
Join date: 2018/01/17
SB: $22.02 (110.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $20.60 (103 bb)
CO: $31.78 (158.9 bb)
BTN: $21.57 (107.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A Q
CO raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, SB calls $0.30, Hero raises to $2.40, 2 folds, SB calls $2.00
Flop: ($5.60) 8 2 A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.36, SB raises to $7.84, Hero calls $4.48
Turn: ($21.28) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $11.78 and is all-in,Spoiler:
notes: no SQ AQ BB//no SQ AJ BU
Q1: do we have 21% against V X/R range?
A1: worst case V needs to X/R 3 combos of FD
<b>Equity</b> <b>Win</b> <b>Tie</b> <b>MP2</b> 21.93% 21.73% 0.19% AcQh <b>MP3</b> 78.07% 77.88% 0.19% 88, 22, A8s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs
With V having high X/R I believe he has more than set at this point. I dont believe he slowplays sets here since he has high raise stat.
Q2: do we have 25% on turn?
A2: The deuce is the second best card after an 8, even better than a Queen, since V valuerange has mostly sets and it reduces his sets/ 2P combos. Villain needs to shove only 2 combos of FD for us to have a call here. When V needsto bluff only this few amounts of combos, it is usually given.
Conclusion: High Variance spot where we should fold flop or turn against a tight check-raiser. Since this is specific and we ahve the best conditions with the turn card and Villaisn high raise stat, I believe it is totally fien to call down.
"Life´s greatest lessons are learned through Pain"
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