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April 3, 2019 at 12:52 pm #465407
Murat CakmakParticipantCFP Student
Join date: 2018/01/17
SB: $23.20 (116 bb)
BB: $6.95 (34.8 bb)
UTG: $20 (100 bb)
MP: $7.67 (38.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $20.29 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $21.77 (108.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, SB raises to $2.40, BB folds, Hero calls $1.90, BTN calls $1.90
Flop: ($7.40) 8 K 2 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: ($7.40) 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.80, BTN calls $3.80, SB folds
River: ($15) K (2 players)
Hero bets $14.09 and is all-in, BTN calls $14.09Spoiler:
Vbu: 66/41 32h
Q1: donk flop?
A1: definitely donk flop. If PFr checks the flop, it is usually weakness and the fish behind us can call with plenty worse, even though it is 3b pot.
Q2: jam river?
A2: Flop gets checked around, so I assume that Villains are mostly weak. However the fish does not have to bet his flushdraw on flop and he might even check behind some Kx or sets.
Turn bet is totally fine, plenty of worse pairs and one-card flushdraws that can call.
My thought process was, V didnt bet or raise twice now, therefore he should not have many sets or flushes. With the K on river is a realyl good card since it reduces his Kx combos.
best case on river: 58,5%
If V calls with these hands on river, we have a jam.
worst case: 44%
I believe V will call more 8x and maybe even 6x than in the worst case
Maybe we can argue for a X/C since he can have many busted club draws that can bluff river.
Actually he has a lot of AcXx since the flop got checked around. If villain is spewy, we should give him chance to bluff. If we bet, V has only 20-30 worse combos that calls depending how many 8x he calls. And he has potentially up to 23 combos of AcXx that he could bluff.
Since V is a fish, he is going to pay off with most of his 8x and PP, therefore jam is totally fine but close since we only have ~58% best case.
"Life´s greatest lessons are learned through Pain"
https://www.bestpokercoaching.com/topic/making-the-dream-into-reality/April 21, 2019 at 1:08 am #467805
Join date: 2016/09/27
A1. I think you’re right with the donk. One broadway on the flop and no straight draws possible, so a good chance to take control and win the pot.
A2. With the king coming on the river I would think about what worse hands will call your shove. My thoughts are only AA, Kx, and a flush. A smaller bet sizing may get calls from weaker pocket pairs, but I think I would check here.
If you don't find the time, if you don't do the work, you don't get the results
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