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June 24, 2019 at 5:00 am #479051
Join date: 2019/09/07
Villain is a fish.
I gave villain a range where he raises two pair+ 2/3 of the time before the river, because of the double FD OTT. I think that’s a reasonable assumption, if anything it could be higher, which helps us. In that case we don’t need villain to call down with all that many Tx, JT+ would already be enough for us to have a profitable value bet.
The question isn’t so much about wether we can value bet or not, but how big we can go. I think the above range would certainly call half pot bets OTR, because of all the missed draws (KJ, 9x, FDs, GSs). I think we could make it around 60% and be good. 75% seems to be a bit thin, although it can’t be that bad.Spoiler:
I think that for the size I bet all Tx will call, and possibly 8x too. Still, I think I missed value and would prefer a bigger sizing next timeNovember 9, 2019 at 8:41 am #508389
Join date: 2019/09/10
Easy 3/4 bet for me. Even I might not fold Tx OTR on this runout vs 3/4bet ( maybe I will fold, but fish will for sure call wider than me ). Q paired and there are 2 missed FD’s in his eyes. He is never folding Tx.
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