BPC Flopzilla Series (part 3)

Hello, and welcome to the 3rd part of the BPC Flopzilla series. (Watch part 1 and part 2 if you missed)

In the last video, we talked about defending vs a cbet in the BB, after calling pre flop vs a 3bb BTN open. We discovered that the BB can defend enough hands vs a cbet.

In this part we’ll defend a wider range in the BB vs a 2bb BTN open raise. We have the following situation:

Situation: The BTN open raise 2bb and the BB calls. On the flop the BTN cbet 1/2 pot and hero defend just by calling.

Question: How many hands do we need to defend so villain can’t auto profit by cbeting any two cards?

We can find out how many hands do we have to defend by calculating the Fold Equity. We use the following Formula:

[Betsize/ (Potsize + Betsize)] = [2.25/ (4.5 + 2.25)] = 33 %

That means that the BTN profits with any two cards when they cbet and we fold more than 33 %. So we have to defend 67 %.

Example:

We have 657 combinations on the following flop:

We have to defend 67 % vs a cbet which is 657 x 67 % = 440 combinations.

Let’s start with our standard check calling range (2^nd pair+) which is: 

55(3), 22(3), J5s(2), J2s(2), JX(84), TT-66(30), 5X(48) = 172 combinations

We also defend OESD & Gutshots which are:

43s(4), A4(16), A3(16), 64s(4), 63s(4) = 44 combinations

Now we defend 172 + 44 = 206 combinations

We need to find more hands.

The next best category is A high with overcards, and overcards with backdoor flush draw.

ATs(3), A9s(3), A8s(3), A7s(3), A6s(3), A4s(3), A3s(3) = 21 combinations

And any other made hand

44(6), 33(6), 2x(33) = 45 combinations

Now we defend 231 + 21 + 45 = 297 combinations

What else can we defend?

The next best hands are Ax without a backdoor flush draw and Overcards.

AT(13), A9(13), A8(13), A7(13), A6(13), A5(13), A4(13), A3(13), KQ(13) = 117 combinations

Now we defend 297 + 117 = 414 combinations

Wow! That’s almost enough. Now it’s hard to find more hands. We could think about hands which are overcards to 2

Now it’s hard to find more hands. We could think about hands which are overcards to the 2^nd pairs with backdoor flush draw:

KTs(3), QT(3), T9s(3), Q9s(3), T8s(3) = 15

In the end we defend 414 + 15 = 429 combinations (65,3 %)

Conclusion:

We discovered that is much harder to defend enough hands when the BB defends a wider range.