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BPC Flopzilla Series (part 2)

Hello, and welcome to the 2nd part of the BPC Flopzilla Series. (Read part 1)

In this article, I’ll talk about a practical example. Let’s assume we have the following condition:

Situation: The BTN open raise to 3BB and we on the BB call. On the flop the BTN cbet 1/2 pot and Hero just calls.

Question: How many hands do we have to defend to prevent villain to profit by cbetting any two cards?

To find out how many hands we have to defend, we need to calculate the Fold Equity. To do that, we use the following formula:

Fold Equity Formula: [Betsize/ (Potsize + Betsize)] = [3.25/ (6.5 + 3.25)] = 33 %

Example:

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We have 110 combinations on the following Flop:

Sem título

We have to defend 67 %. That is 110 x 0,67 % = 74 combinations.

Let’s start with our standard check-calling range, which is:

JJ (3), AJ(12), KJs(3), QJs(3), JTs(3) = 24 combinations.

We have 24 combinations of Top Pair and better. The second best category is 2nd pairs, which are:

TT(6), 99(6), 88(6), 77(6) and 66(6) = 30 combinations

Now we defend 54 combinations, but we still need 20 more. The next category is overcards with an Ace.

AQo(12), AQs(4) = 16 combinations

We almost have enough hands to defend vs a cbet. We need 4 more. The following category is overcards with backdoor flush draws. We have:

KQs(3) = 3 combinations

In total we defend: JJ (3), AJ(12), KJs(3), QJs(3), JTs(3), TT(6), 99(6), 88(6), 77(6), 66(6), AQo(12), AQs(4), KQs(3) = 73 combinations (66.4%).

Conclusion:

When we have a tight range in the BB we can find enough hands to defend vs a cbet. In the next part, I’ll analyze a wider opening range from the BTN and see if the BB is able to defend enough.

Article created by BPC coach and former CFP student, JurassicDaniel (read his blog). See you in the next part (Part 3).]

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